Public Support
EMC Research conducted a telephone survey in the spring of 2009 among likely voters in the State of California. The study was designed to measure public opinion regarding a potential change in the California Constitution to allow local parcel tax measures for school funding to pass with 55% support from local electors.
Conclusion
Passage of an initiative to amend California's Constitution to allow parcel taxes for education to be enacted with 55% support from local electors appears feasible with a broad-based and strong campaign effort. Polling indicates that there is a significant base of support for the proposal and many of the underlying factors behind it.
The polling clearly indicates that voters want to: put more money into classrooms to improve education quality; give more control to local school districts; reduce dependence on the state for education funding; and, protect taxpayers by requiring strict oversight and annual audits of all special tax expenditures.
Key Findings
Information dramatically increases support for the proposed initiative. On an initial "uninformed" vote on the proposed initiative, 47% of voters indicate they would support it. Upon learning about some of the components of the initiative, including taxpayer safeguards, increased local control over education funding, and education improvements, support for the proposed initiative increases 9 points to 56%. Finally, after hearing some additional information regarding some of the potential details and impacts of the proposed measure, support rises to 60%, a 13-point increase over the initial "uninformed" vote. This significant increase in support suggests that there is an effective story to be told about this proposal and that a strong campaign effort could lead to passage of the initiative.
I'd like to read you a proposed initiative that could appear on a future ballot: Should the California Constitution be amended so that a special tax for a school district shall be approved by a 55-percent vote of the qualified electors? If the election was held today, would you vote Yes or No?
A significant base of support exists for the proposed initiative. The polling revealed several key constituencies that show consistent support for the proposal, including large numbers of Democrats, young voters, and women. A key focus of the proponent campaign will be to build and strengthen the support levels of these base constituencies, as well as expanding support into other key constituent groups.
Most voters feel strongly that local schools need help. Three out of four voters (75%) feel local schools need more money, and 55 percent say schools have a "great need" for additional funds. Additionally, 61 percent say improving California's public schools should be a top priority for the state, and that they would support a proposal that makes it easier to increase funding for schools.
Would you say that public schools in California have a great need for more money, some need for more money, only a little need or no real need for more money?
Voters believe local school districts should have more control. More than 80 percent of voters say they want local districts to have more control over education funding. This is another encouraging sign which plays into one of the key strengths and positives of the proposed initiative, which is namely that it will make it easier for local school districts to raise money for education, giving them more local control over education funding and reducing their dependence on the state.
Voters are far more likely to trust local leaders with education tax dollars than the state. Only 18 percent trust the state to properly manage education tax dollars, while 61 percent trust their local school district to do so. This is another positive for the proposed measure, as it will give local school districts more control over education funding, which the polling shows is a concept supported by a majority of voters.
Voters are extremely pessimistic about the direction of the state and are concerned about the budget crisis. Only 12 percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while 80 percent feel things in California are pretty seriously off on the wrong track. Nearly one-third (32%) of voters indicate that the state budget crisis is the most important problem facing California today. Voters' concern about the direction of the state and the current budget crisis present another opportunity to offer the proposed measure as an opportunity to reduce local school districts' dependence on the state for education funding.
Methodology
The survey was conducted by telephone among 808 likely voters in the State of California. Interviews were conducted on both land lines and cell phones, and were completed during the daytime and evening hours of May 28 through June 3. The study has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.45% at the 95% confidence interval.
Contact Information
Ruth Bernstein, Principal, EMC Research, Inc.
(510) 550-8922, CLOAKING